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Channel: How do I figure out how many items I should expect to exceed my error threshold? - Cross Validated
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Answer by knrumsey for How do I figure out how many items I should expect to...

Stating and Simplifying the ProblemTo simplify things, let's assume that the total number of items, $n$, never changes. Let $X_{ij} = 1$ if item $i$ exceeds the threshold on day $j$. Let $Y_i =...

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Answer by Stephan Kolassa for How do I figure out how many items I should...

Part of the complexity is that you have time series, and errors over time within a product may well be highly autocorrelated, because some products are just harder to forecast than others. Or not. It...

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How do I figure out how many items I should expect to exceed my error threshold?

Let me explain what numbers I'm working with, then I'll explain the problem.I calculate the 99th percentile forecast error threshold across all items for the past year at a store.Then I report the...

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